BRICS Expansion: A strategic geopolitical realignment?

BRICS, the alliance currently consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, formally invited six new countries to join at its summit in Johannesburg last month; Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

If accepted, their memberships will begin in January 2024 and will mean that the group will represent 42% of the world’s population and total 36% of global GDP.

Founded in 2009, BRICS was initially established to increase economic cooperation, development and trade opportunities between the world’s leading emerging economies.

Moreover, it sought to challenge the current world order which favours the West and Western interests, and establish greater representation for countries in the Global South in international institutions such as the UN, World Trade Organisation and World Bank.

It has become a platform for developing countries to voice their views and seeks to establish itself as an alternative to the Western G7 intergovernmental forum.

What does this tell us about the trajectory of BRICS?

The decision to expand, as well as the countries chosen to join the bloc, give a telling insight into the power dynamics amongst the current BRICS nations.

China has long been in favour of expansion, hoping it will not only move BRICS towards becoming an effective counterweight to Western dominance, but also increase its own global power and influence.

As China strives to overtake the US as the leading global superpower, an expanding BRICS increases China’s geographical reach in terms of its diplomacy and foreign relations. This is particularly true when looking at the geographical diversity of the nations invited to join, with the six nations being located across the Middle East, Africa and South America.

The inclusion of countries such as Iran, which is strongly anti-US, further highlights the power dynamics present amongst the original BRICS states. Both China and Russia maintain close ties to Iran, which has supplied drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine, as well as discounted oil to China, in spite of US sanctions.

Whilst South Africa also has longstanding ties to Iran, Brazil and India are far more neutral and both uphold positive relations with the US which they are eager to maintain. The fact that Iran has been selected to join in spite of this emphasises the power imbalance within the alliance, which favours the two largest powers, China and Russia.

The controversial decision to invite Iran can also be regarded as having geopolitical motives designed to antagonise the US and its Western allies.

By deliberately including nations with hostile relations with the US, China and Russia appear to be pushing the bloc towards becoming a more overtly anti-Western group. This is significant at a time when relations between the US and both China and Russia are extremely tense, heightened by Russia’s war in Ukraine and Beijing’s subsequent support for Moscow.

Inviting Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., as well as Iran, three of the world’s biggest oil exporters, reflect the bloc’s desire to move away from monetary and financial dependence on the US. BRICS are likely wanting to strengthen their energy security and ensure that they have guaranteed access to additional energy resources, meaning they can maintain functioning economies without being caught in the collateral damage of Western sanctions.

What does this mean for the West?

The expansion of BRICS is likely no immediate cause for concern for the West, however, what might be alarming is the level of interest in joining the bloc.

Whilst 22 nations formally applied to join, a total of 40 expressed an interest. This may serve as a stark indicator to the West of the level of dissatisfaction felt amongst less developed countries towards the current world order and persisting US hegemony. It highlights that many countries are unhappy with the status-quo, finding themselves marginalised in an international system which is dominated by the West and favours Western interests.

BRICS has also been vocal in its desire to move away from the dependence on the US dollar for global trade. Whilst talks of establishing a new BRICS currency have failed to materialise, the nations have discussed the option of conducting trade with one another in their local currencies. This could significantly diminish the power of the US dollar and have a negative knock-on effect for Western economies that continue to trade in dollars.

Furthermore, BRICS leaders have repeatedly criticised the US’ use of unilateral sanctions and expressed a desire for sovereignty over how they respond to and treat other nations. This reinforces the sense that many developing states are wanting to move away from US dominance and pressure.

Such a development forces us to consider that the geopolitical landscape may shift in decades to come, and the threat this poses to the US and its purported hegemony.

It also shows that nations such as Russia and Iran, both heavily sanctioned by the US, are not as isolated as the West would have liked. The fact that so many nations expressed interest in joining a bloc in which Russia is a key member demonstrates that, for many, increasing their representation and achieving a more balanced world order, as well as accessing the economic benefits that come with joining BRICS, are more important than Russian condemnation and isolation.

The summit has demonstrated that Russia still has international allies that are willing to support it, which will no doubt have aggravated the West. Similarly for Iran, joining BRICS helps prove that it has powerful friends, potentially giving it leverage in future negotiations with the US as it can argue that it has the validation of some of the world’s major powers.

In terms of China, it could drive it to become a more powerful opponent to the US, posing a threat in the future which the US should become increasingly cautious of.

When announcing the expansion at the summit in Johannesburg, South African President Ramaphosa said that they “have consensus on the first phase of this expansion process and other phases will follow.” As such, it is clear the bloc has plans to grow further, which will only enhance China’s international authority.  

The future of BRICS: a divisive counterweight or divided alliance?

As mentioned, the admission of nations such as Iran into BRICS can be perceived as being driven by geopolitical motives designed to antagonise the West. As a result, it risks increasing tensions and global polarisation by creating a larger division between the Global North and Global South.

In reality, though, the expansion of BRICS can be argued to be more symbolic than substantive. Geopolitically, it makes a statement. However, at present, it is difficult to see the new bloc succeeding as an effective competitor to the G7.

The diversity among members in terms of foreign policy goals, economic development, political regimes and Western relations will no doubt make agreements hard to reach. As a consensus-backed organisation, all BRICS members must be in agreement before decisions are made.

Additional members mean additional opinions and interests to consider, and amicable cooperation may prove difficult. This is particularly valid in light of existing fractures between some member states, such as border disputes between India and China, and hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran, who until recently have been adversaries.

China and Russia’s enduring and somewhat emphatic anti-US sentiment may also lead to difficulties with more neutral states who are keen to uphold their positive relations with the West and may begin to push back against the bloc moving towards becoming an anti-Western alliance.

At the recent summit, for example, Brazil’s President Lula made clear in his speech that BRICS is not designed to be a counterweight to the G7 or the US. In contrast, speeches from Russian and Chinese leaders were filled with anti-US sentiment and accusations.

That said, despite its varied membership, the group has made some notable developments since its formation in 2009, such as establishing the New Development Bank. Moreover, broadening the bloc’s member states enhances its credibility and means that it can claim a stronger collective voice in international forums and have greater authority as a representative of the views of the Global South.

Being the strongest power in the bloc, China will no doubt continue to drive decisions, exerting its soft power over member states and being able to claim leadership of the developing world. However, it is possible that more neutral nations might begin to reconsider whether they want to be so closely aligned with an increasingly assertive and dominant China.

Whilst the future of BRICS might be powerful, the true impact of this expansion will depend on the group’s ability to collaborate and forge agreements diplomatically. With a lack of overarching ideology or common goal, serious work will need to be done to establish an effective means of cooperation and consensus amongst such a diverse grouping of states.