Case Study

Threat and risk assessment for multinational in conflict zone




For this project we were approached to carry out a threat and risk assessment for an international corporation with sites throughout Ukraine. Many of these sites were situated in close proximity to the ‘line of contact’, in the Donbass region, where an armed conflict between Ukrainian and pro-Russian forces has continued since April 2014. Therefore, our intelligence consultants sought to pull the most up to date, relevant data on the conflict, overlay this with recent satellite imagery and identified useful open source information, such as pro-Russian militants social media accounts, to geolocate the current line of fighting. Comparing both past and more current satellite images allowed us to identify where farmland had disappeared and grass grown in its place, meaning it was highly likely to be an area of fighting was frequent, and also the identification of where trenches were dug. Their intent and capability to attack client sites was also analysed and assessed. The information was provided to the client in a very visual format, including the use of mapping showing attack hotspots and their sites, to aid them in understand the threat level.

Outcomes for the client

  • An understanding of the security environment they are operating in – including from the ongoing conflict, protest action, targeted attack etc.
  • A thorough assessment of their risk exposure in Ukraine, and whether this has increased or decreased over the previous years.
  • Whether there is intent or capability from any threat actor to attack their industry type/sites, and whether these are at risk of being caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict.

Project leads

Laura Hawkes
Head of Intelligence
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Jake Hernandez
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