Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduroby US forces in January 2026, the TI team produced an escalation scenario report on the unfolding situation in Venezuela, designed to help insurance markets understand their exposure to potential political violence escalation in the region.

The report began with a detailed account of the incident, providing an operational timeline of the months and days leading up to, and directly following, Maduro's capture. This covered the preparatory phase, the assault on his compound, his transfer into US custody, Rodríguez's swearing-in as interim president, and Maduro's first court appearance.

Building on this, the report provided in-depth analysis of the immediate fallout and likely wider impacts, focusing on the key areas most likely to be affected by the situation, including the security crackdown underway in Venezuela and the knock-on effects for the regional and global oil industry.

Drawing on AnotherDay's intelligence and assessment of the situation, the team set out seven possible trajectories for Venezuela and the wider region over the coming months and years, assigning each scenario a probability rating using the UK Defence Intelligence Probability Yardstick, ranging from a re-consolidation of Chavista leadership under Rodríguez (highly likely) through to a full-scale US invasion and occupation (unlikely).

The final section assessed the exposure of Gallagher's insured book of business, mapping client assets in Venezuela and Colombia's border regions against the areas identified as being at highest risk. This considered proximity to likely flashpoints, such as Caracas and Venezuela's main oil-producing regions, as well as sector-specific risk factors relevant to each asset, giving the insurance markets clear visibility into their exposure and helping inform underwriting and risk management decisions as the situation develops.

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