Russia’s election: Putin’s route to a fifth term

What we know

Vladimir Putin recently secured his fifth term as President in the Russian election with an 87% majority. Widely criticised as corrupt and predetermined, the three other Kremlin-endorsed candidates had little chance of winning. His closest contender, Boris Nadezhin, had planned to run on an anti-war platform but was barred only a week before. When coupled with instances of possible voter intimidation under ‘armed guard’ from occupied Mariupol to Moscow, a different result never seemed possible.

Putin’s true rival fared far worse. Alexei Navalny, who voluntarily returned to Russia in January 2021, was poisoned, arrested, and reportedly beaten, before being exiled to a penal colony in the Arctic Circle where he died in February. Ironically, the only recorded instance of Putin referring to him by name came the day after the election, demonstrating the impact of his influence.

Why it matters

Navalny’s death appears to have halted all possibility of a Russian change of course. From the outset of the Ukraine invasion, hopeful commentators had speculated on the potential for protest against Putin, reminiscent of the Solidarity movement of the 1980’s. Activists railing against the human cost of the war did gain some traction, but even with the blip that was Wagner’s mutiny, opposition seems like a distant memory today. His ‘victory’ has instead served to reignite domestic anxieties of a second wave of conscription ahead of a potential summer offensive into Ukraine.

Already 71, Putin now appears likely to reign until his death or infirmity; by the end of this term he will have held power longer than even Stalin. Crucially, he has never nominated a clear successor. With this election demonstrating the impossibility of real Russian democracy in the near future, questions will be raised over who will eventually control Russia, and therefore the largest nuclear arsenal on Earth, after Putin.