Lebanon: Political crises and geopolitical compromise

Lebanon’s economic crisis is in its fourth year – people cannot afford fuel and the country is nearly bankrupt.

Since the end of 2019, Lebanon’s currency has lost approximately 90% of its value and around 80% of its population are in poverty. During this time period there has been a marked increase in social tensions, distrust in the government, and a worsening economic situation. And in 2019 this caused a spike in civil unrest - come to be known as the October Revolution.

The impact of COVID-19

Shortly after the COVID-19 outbreak hit Lebanon at a time where the country was already in political turmoil, was already facing an unprecedented economic crisis, impairing the capacities of already vulnerable Lebanese and refugees to make ends meet, overwhelming Lebanon’s faltering health system and stretched public services and heightening the risks of social instability.

Bank heists and mistrust

In recent months, this economic collapse has become even more exacerbated, with banks becoming key zones of contention and also a rise in gender-based violence. In September, an armed woman stormed a branch of Blom Bank in Beirut, took hostages, demanded withdrawals from accounts and threatened to set herself on fire.  

Since 03 Oct, at least six Lebanese banks have been stormed by depositors across the country. This includes a former Lebanese ambassador who held a sit-in at his bank outside of the capital city of Beirut, refusing to leave until he received his money.

The overarching theme of this is continuing and deepening lack of trust in institutions, including state security apparatus and the banking sector.

Meanwhile, there have been concerning reports of an uptick in domestic violence against women coinciding with the financial crisis, which women’s rights activists have said is due to increased stresses at home.

In all, the country desperately needs hard currency. The international community have voiced this can only come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the ruling elite continue to push back against these reforms as they see it as undermining their allegedly corrupt rule for last 30 years.

Lebanon-Israel maritime border dispute

Amid this unfolding of Lebanese society, is a potential warming of geopolitical relations between Lebanon and its traditional enemy Israel. It was announced this month that the US is attempting to broker a deal over a long running dispute between the two countries over their maritime border.

Both countries lay claim to a stretch of ocean in the east of the Mediterranean, which contains lucrative gas reserves in the area. Both parties have historically disagreed over the boundary of their exclusive economic zones, which comprises the Qana Prospect and Karish gas Field.

The latest proposal offers a compromise with the two nations sharing the Qana Field while the Karish would be in Israel. Both sides are said to be open to an agreement on this, which marks a stark change from decades of disagreements and tensions on the topic.