A look at South Asian elections in 2024

Board members of companies with a significant South Asian presence, including IT offices or suppliers should be aware of the geopolitical landscape, especially in relation to elections which has historically led to the suppression of minorities as well as violence and widespread protests.

Historical Context

Following the fall of the British Empire and the British Raj’s rule of the 500+ princely states, modern-day India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka forged their way ahead with leaders such as Mahatma Gandhi, Muhammed Ali Jinnah, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and Jawaharlal Nehru.

Jinnah, along with other Muslim leaders, rejected a unified India in which East Pakistan (now sovereign Bangladesh) and West Pakistan were formed. Sri Lanka (formerly Ceylon), a majority Buddhist country, also became its own country in spite of a long-standing civil war that ended in 2009. However, many of these founding leaders’ descendants are still actively involved in politics.

India

Today, Rahul Gandhi, grandson of Indira Gandhi and great-grandson of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, is the main opposition of India’s ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), headed by incumbent Narendra Modi. Gandhi represents the historic Indian National Congress that has failed to make substantive gains against Modi and the BJP. Modi’s party is often accused of marginalising religious minorities in favour of Hindu nationalism.

Key states that have a significant role in determining the Lok Sabha elections which select the Prime Minister of India are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal – Uttar Pradesh, the most populated and poverty-stricken state, is a strong supporter of Modi’s BJP party.

Although Rahul Gandhi has lost to Modi before, a new coalition is forming to take advantage of states that are not as strongly in support of the BJP. States in northern and southern India are a battleground for the BJP and an opportunity for coalition parties to make significant gains, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Kashmir.

While it is likely incumbent PM Modi will win, it is likely he will not win with as big of a margin as he did in the 2019 election.

Pakistan

Pakistan had its controversial elections in early 2024 in which incumbent Shehbaz Sharif continues to be Prime Minister.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, great-grandson of former prime ministers Zulfikar Ali and Benazir Bhutto, also ran against incumbent Shehbaz Sharif. However, the main opposition candidates to Sharif were former prime minister and cricketer, Imran Khan, and Omar Ayub Khan. Imran Khan and Shehbaz’s brother, Nawaz Sharif, were both ousted as former prime ministers and imprisoned.

In late April, protests in West Punjab (Pakistan) ensued with police crackdown of activists in support of Imran Khan’s party.

Bangladesh

Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, incumbent Sheikh Hasina has won yet another term as prime minister albeit the United States (US) and UK (United Kingdom) stating that the elections were not fair nor free and that it resembled autocracy more than democracy with voter turnout at a mere 41%. However, Miss Hasina has been credited for curbing Islamic militancy as well as balancing foreign interests concerning India, China, and the US.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe is up for election likely in late 2024 and is unlikely to win given the country’s dissatisfaction with their government. The country has struggled to significantly develop since its civil war ended in 2009.

In recent years, Sri Lanka has faced massive protests and economic crises leading to human rights violations by the government. Sri Lankans have demonstrated a lack of confidence in the government as the people suffer from a lack of food, and medicine as well as a lack of fuel and power.

While the country is showing signs of recovery, Sri Lanka was able to secure a bailout package of nearly USD 3 billion from the IMF which is released in tranches and intended to encourage economic reform.

Kashmir

India and Pakistan’s decades-long territorial dispute over the Kashmir region has escalated since India revoked its autonomous status in 2019 in which it must abide by Indian law.

Recently, PM Sharif of Pakistan equated Kashmir with the Gaza Strip and the West Bank calling for a resolution. China also has increased its interest and investments in the Aksai Chin region of Kashmir. The region is also holding its election this year.

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While the incumbent effect seems to be quite strong this year in South Asian elections, a lot of civil unrest and minority rights suppression may ensue. In India, the Modi government will likely continue its policies which may lead to significant ethnic and religious violence. In Pakistan, the controversial elections and accusations surrounding this may impact the amount of IMF funding it can secure.