Case Study

Real-time intelligence and strategic advisory before and during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Location:
Ukraine

Services

Overview

We were engaged by a North American company with a large operation in Ukraine to provide them with intelligence and advisory before and during Russia’s invasion in February 2022. From December 2021, we identified a build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian and Belarusian border, leading us to notify our client of this development and conduct scenario planning exercises. This included likely entrance roots should they invade and how this may impact the clients sites and operations. Since the invasion our intelligence team has been on hand to provide real-time alerting on notable incidents from either a strategic level or that are specific to the client’s locations.

We have carried out several bespoke projects for the client during this time, such as a ‘wargaming’ exercise to assess the impact and likely period of disruption should the area around the client site be targeted. In another piece of work, our team have also created Key Risk Indicators that form the basis of our monitoring. Should these be activated it would alert it would inform the client of potential timescale for them to begin evacuating from country.

Outcomes for the client

• A dedicated Ukraine crisis team to request intelligence streams and bespoke ad-hoc reporting that aligns with the client’s operations and goals in country.

• Direct points of contact for advice on emergency security protocols to protect their colleagues on the group.

• Greater situational awareness of the threat landscape on the ground, including a granular picture of what the moving situation in locations of operation looked like through social media monitoring.

• Subject matter expert analysis and geopolitical strategic level assessments, including projections for the short and longer terms.

• An understanding of how other neighbouring and global countries are being impacted by the war in Ukraine – such as, Taiwan, Balkan States and Western nations.

• This whole framework of intelligence-led reporting can be fed back daily to senior leadership so they can be assured all potential risks are being mitigated.

Project leads

Laura Hawkes
Consultant, Threat Intelligence
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Amber Meadows
Associate, Threat Intelligence
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