The Islamist insurgency in Mozambique and its impact on global supplies of liquefied natural gas

The Cabo Delgado province in northern Mozambique is the base for a USD20bn Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project in which French energy giant, TotalEnergies, is a key stakeholder.

The project, located close to the town of Palma, has been under construction since 2019.

However, violent jihadist attacks dating back to 2017 led TotalEnergies to suspend their work on the project in January 2021 due to security concerns. As a result, the Mozambiquan government declared a 25km high-security perimeter around the LNG project, including Palma.

In March 2021, TotalEnergies subsequently announced plans to resume work on the project – just days before a ruthless insurgency began.

On 24 March 2021, Islamist insurgents carried out a brutal attack on the town of Palma and surrounding areas. The attack lasted 4 days and resulted in at least 87 deaths, with multiple reports of civilians being shot and beheaded in the streets.

The insurgents burnt down buildings, robbed banks, and ransacked government offices. People fleeing the violence were reportedly murdered, and the local Amarula hotel, in which hundreds of people were taking refuge, was also attacked, as well as a convoy of 17 vehicles attempting to rescue people from the hotel.

Impact of the attack

Following the attack, TotalEnergies once again announced that it was suspending its work on the project and withdrew all of its foreign workers from Mozambique. The project is yet to be resumed, with significant consequences both within Mozambique and globally.

As the largest-ever single investment in Africa, the LNG project was expected to significantly boost Mozambique's struggling economy, with nearly USD100bn in revenue projected over 25 years. Delays have halted this, leading to reduced economic growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund.

Given the high poverty rate in Mozambique, the delayed LNG exports pose a significant humanitarian concern, as they had the potential to improve living conditions for many.

Delays in Mozambique's LNG extraction have also raised global energy supply concerns, especially for Europe, the primary recipient of Mozambique's gas exports. With the Ukraine war, Mozambique’s LNG is crucial for the EU as an alternative energy source to Russian gas, with the project expected to enhance energy security by reducing reliance on Russian resources.

Furthermore, LNG is considered a ’cleaner’ energy source than other fossil fuels. This is particularly important, given that many countries are seeking to switch to ‘cleaner’ energy sources in order to hit sustainability targets and reduce the effects of global warming.

Delays in the exportation of LNG may force countries to rely on higher-pollution energy sources, exacerbating environmental impacts. Poorer countries such as Mozambique are likely to be the most affected by such events.  

The future of Mozambique’s LNG projects

Significant concerns still remain surrounding the government’s ability to protect workers and ensure security for LNG projects.

Attacks in 2021 demonstrated that Islamic extremist groups in Mozambique have grown significantly in size, military capability, and sophistication. In contrast, the government was accused of failing to have the required intelligence and military capabilities to respond to attacks effectively.

The presence of multinational corporations has also contributed to the rising violence in the region. Gas projects have led to the displacement of local residents and generated resentment towards foreign companies that have taken control of Mozambique's abundant gas reserves. Consequently, future attacks are likely, especially considering the continued growth of Islamist extremism in northern Mozambique since 2021.

Despite this, the epicentre of the violence has shifted away from the Palma region in recent months. After two years of suspension, TotalEnergies released a report earlier this year with an action plan for the resumption of operations of the LNG project.

Nevertheless, a restart date is yet to be given, and the future of Mozambique’s LNG supplies remains unclear.

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